The Role of Climate Sensitivity and Ocean Heat Uptake on AOGCM Transient Temperature Response

نویسندگان

  • SARAH C. B. RAPER
  • JONATHAN M. GREGORY
  • RONALD J. STOUFFER
چکیده

The role of climate sensitivity and ocean heat uptake in determining the range of climate model response is investigated in the second phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP2) AOGCM results. The fraction of equilibrium warming that is realized at any one time is less in those models with higher climate sensitivity, leading to a reduction in the temperature response range at the time of CO2 doubling [transient climate response (TCR) range]. The range is reduced by a further 15% because of an apparent relationship between climate sensitivity and the efficiency of ocean heat uptake. Some possible physical causes for this relationship are suggested.

برای دانلود متن کامل این مقاله و بیش از 32 میلیون مقاله دیگر ابتدا ثبت نام کنید

ثبت نام

اگر عضو سایت هستید لطفا وارد حساب کاربری خود شوید

منابع مشابه

Comparing Oceanic Heat Uptake in AOGCM Transient Climate Change Experiments

The transient response of both surface air temperature and deep ocean temperature to an increasing external forcing strongly depends on climate sensitivity and the rate of the heat mixing into the deep ocean, estimates for both of which have large uncertainty. In this paper a method for estimating rates of oceanic heat uptake for coupled atmosphere–ocean general circulation models from results ...

متن کامل

Evaluating the performance of Atmosphere-Ocean Global Circulation Models (AOGCM) in simulating temperature variable in Ahwaz and Abadan stations

Climate changes caused by global warming has presented challenges to human society. Studying the Changes of climate variables in the future decades by using output data’s of Atmosphere-Ocean Global Circulation Models (AOGCM) is a way of perusing climate fluctuation in a region. In this study, the focus is on the AOGCM proceeds in simulating of variable temperature in Ahwaz and Abadan stations. ...

متن کامل

Importance of oceanic heat uptake in transient climate change

[1] The impact of the differences in the oceanic heat uptake and storage on the transient response to changes in radiative forcing is investigated using two newly developed coupled atmosphere-ocean models. In spite of its larger equilibrium climate sensitivity, one model (CM2.1) has smaller transient globally averaged surface air temperature (SAT) response than is found in the second model (CM2...

متن کامل

Importance of Ocean Heat Uptake Efficacy to Transient Climate Change

This article proposes a modification to the standard forcing–feedback diagnostic energy balance model to account for 1) differences between effective and equilibrium climate sensitivities and 2) the variation of effective sensitivity over time in climate change experiments with coupled atmosphere–ocean climate models. In the spirit of Hansen et al. an efficacy factor is applied to the ocean hea...

متن کامل

Constraints on the transient climate response from observed global temperature and ocean heat uptake

Projections of future transient global temperature increase in climate models for a known forcing depend on the strength of the atmospheric feedbacks and the rate of transient ocean heat uptake. A Bayesian framework and an intermediate complexity climate model are used to calculate a probability density function (PDF) of the transient climate response (TCR), constrained by observations of globa...

متن کامل

ذخیره در منابع من


  با ذخیره ی این منبع در منابع من، دسترسی به آن را برای استفاده های بعدی آسان تر کنید

برای دانلود متن کامل این مقاله و بیش از 32 میلیون مقاله دیگر ابتدا ثبت نام کنید

ثبت نام

اگر عضو سایت هستید لطفا وارد حساب کاربری خود شوید

عنوان ژورنال:

دوره   شماره 

صفحات  -

تاریخ انتشار 2000